Let us take this as an example, which is already in place. We can switch the operator without changing the numbers. Who would benefit from this benefit then?
When Vodafone entered the market with Zoozoo, it chipped off nearly 10% or more of the market share of Airtel. New players like Uninor actually saw a rise of a share of services greatly within a few years time. Some of the new handset providers like MicroMax started chipping off the next generation mobile handset area of marketing. Also, 3G has arrived in India. What can be the future of the mobile then?
Some experts say that some KPI are useful for looking into the penetration of the mobile market. In fact let me try to develop a model based on the mobile usage, which will cater to the development of the country in terms of telecommunication. Let us first look into the qualitative aspects:
A: Churning out numbers
1. Average No. of mobiles/ carries used by a person : The ratio total no. of subscription of mobile carriers/ (The total no. of persons in the country * The Ryder effect)
2. Average No. of mobiles/ carries used in a family: The ratio of total no. of subscription of mobile carriers/ (Total no. of families in the country * Ryder Effect)
3. Average No. of carries mobiles/ carriers used in the block, district, state: The ratio of the total no. of mobile carriers/ (Total no. of persons in Block, district, State * Ryder effect)
All these three can determine the mobile penetration rate in the country, specific to a geography or a singular point as circle. The Ryder effect is the ratio for which a single person can have multiple carriers during a course of at least 3 months. For example, if the mobile no. of users is 243 for a geographical space, and they have 368 connections, for that geographical space, then they will have a Ryder Effect as = 368/ 243 = 1.514. This is used to determine the right value of the ratios.
B: Type and Time of Usage
1. Specific type of usage: This determines the actual kind of the usage like videos, chat sessions, or advanced features that add up to the cumulative points in the structuring of the mobile penetration. (The average usage of the next generation features * No. of average users)/ (Total no. of users with phones* No. of additional features) gives us a ratio. This ratio should be greater than a strict value say 0.65.
2. Time of peak usage
If the usage time is in between 9 00 PM to 6 00 AM in the morning, the mobile usability factor is supposed to be low. Supposed Ratio, the Mobile usage time factor = Total time inside the peak usage range for n no. of users/ Total Time inside the peak hours outside the range for the n no. of users should be less than a flat ratio, say 2.78 for the penetration to be accurate.
These two variables weighted are used to determine the total weight of the penetration.
C: Value of the mobile handset
1. What was the value of psychological value and economic value of the handset along with a carrier as an Asset Value: The ratio of the perceived value should be less than 1. I mean the psychological value/ economical value. The lesser the amount of psychological attachment, more is the penetration rate. The switching cost involved should be less.
E: Propagation Index
1. What is the rate at which the penetration is propelling forward: Or otherwise the growth rate trajectory of the propagation. If the last quarter the growth was 10% and now the growth is 15%, then the propagation rate is 50%.
F. 3G Usage
1. What are the Next generation Usage rate in the country and its increase rate?
This determines the ratio at which the country is increasing the usage rate, and the rate at which the penetration is heading towards.
The conclusion is that a weighted mean of these components can determine the intensity of the mobile penetration in a geographical area.