Effective rate of crude oil for future against the spot price

When you buy Crude Oil, based on imports or refining at places in EMs like India and China, certain spot rates and futures are used against normal hedging. Future versus Spots are also a type of risk assessment, based on currency fluctuations, which need to be addressed via rates for barrels in USD. Here is an approach for assessment whether the fixed price is better, or hedging through futures is better than the spot prices. In most of the cases, SD will be more than mean. The SD is calculated based on futures versus spot, giving a price edge for OPEC and distillers, which actually provide more earnings than the normal spot rate. Here is the graph.


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